2026 Data Report

Australian Used-Car Risk Index by State — 2026

Name: Australian Used-Car Risk Index by State — 2026
Creator: National VIN Check
Published: 2026-07-02T00:00:00+10:00

We combined write-off rates, finance-owing rates and vehicle theft into a single risk index to rank where buying a used car carries the most hidden risk — from highest to lowest.

Published by National VIN Check · Data current as of July 2026 · Methodology below

Not every used-car market carries the same risk. A car's chance of hiding a write-off, outstanding finance, or a stolen history varies meaningfully by state — shaped by weather events, traffic density, lending patterns, and theft rates.

To make that comparable, we built a composite risk index. Each state is scored from 0 to 100 (indexed to the highest-risk state) by combining its write-off rate, finance-owing rate, and a relative theft index. A higher score means a greater chance of hidden risk in a private used-car purchase.

Key findings

1New South Wales tops the index as the highest-risk state, driven by the country's highest write-off and finance-owing rates.
2Victoria and Queensland round out the top three — Queensland's score is lifted by the nation's highest vehicle-theft index.
3The ACT is the lowest-risk jurisdiction overall, with the lowest write-off and theft rates.
4Regional factors matter: the Northern Territory ranks mid-table largely because of elevated theft, despite a low write-off rate.

Used-car risk index by state

Composite score from 0–100, indexed to the highest-risk state (NSW = 100).

New South Wales100

Write-off 24% · finance owing 19%

Victoria91

Write-off 22% · finance owing 18%

Queensland82

Write-off 19.5% · finance owing 17%

Western Australia66

Write-off 16% · finance owing 15%

South Australia60

Write-off 15% · finance owing 13%

Northern Territory44

Write-off 4% · finance owing 12%

Tasmania38

Write-off 8% · finance owing 11%

ACT25

Write-off 4% · finance owing 16%

Composite of write-off rate, finance-owing rate, and relative theft index. Higher = greater hidden-risk exposure.

Full state breakdown

Rank	State / Territory	Write-off %	Finance owing %	Theft index	Risk score
1	New South Wales	24%	19%	88	100
2	Victoria	22%	18%	84	91
3	Queensland	19.5%	17%	90	82
4	Western Australia	16%	15%	62	66
5	South Australia	15%	13%	48	60
6	Northern Territory	4%	12%	70	44
7	Tasmania	8%	11%	30	38
8	ACT	4%	16%	22	25

Why this matters when buying used

Wherever you're buying, the single reliable way to remove the guesswork is to check the individual car — not just trust the state average. A PPSR and VIN check reveals that specific vehicle's finance, write-off and stolen history before you commit, no matter which state it's registered in.

Run a VIN check now See all data & insights

Cite this data

Free to reference or embed — please credit National VIN Check and link back to the source page.

National VIN Check, "Australian Used-Car Risk Index by State — 2026", 2026. https://nationalvincheck.com.au/data/used-car-risk-index-australia-2026/

Methodology & limitations

Sample: 9,213 vehicle checks run through National VIN Check between January 2026 – July 2026, aggregated and anonymised.
Data sources: Official PPSR (administered by AFSA), NEVDIS, the national stolen vehicle register, and the Written-Off Vehicle Register (WOVR).
Limitations: Figures reflect vehicles checked through our platform, not the full national fleet. Users self-select to check specific vehicles, which can skew results toward higher-risk purchases.
Updates: This report is refreshed periodically — last updated July 2026.